While it’s not possible to go back four years and examine exactly what pricing discounts were offered on the Grand Caravan and/or Odyssey during the 2008 model year, it is possible to examine current MSRPs for these two vehicles and compare them with their estimated residual values in four years. The Canadian Black Book’s website includes a tool for estimating Future Values which can be used as “guide for the expected depreciation over a 1 to 5 year period,” with a caveat that “actual values vary depending on several different factors including the condition of the car, number of accidents, and many other factors.”
A base 2012 Odyssey LX model has an MSRP of $29,990. According to the CBB’s online Future Values chart, in 2016 a 2012 Honda Odyssey LX will have a value of $13,200 (based on 24,000 km per year), or 44 percent of its original MSRP.
The base 2012 Grand Caravan SE has an MSRP of $27,995. In 2016, a 2012 Dodge Grand Caravan SE is predicted to have a value of $10,000, or 36 percent of its original MSRP. So it appears the Odyssey retains a higher percentage of its original price.
However, the actual purchase price of a 2012 Dodge Grand Caravan SE (before Freight, PDI, interest, and taxes) is just $19,995 because, for most of 2012, Chrysler has been offering an $8,000 “Canada Value Package” rebate on the Grand Caravan SE model. Thus, the 2012 Grand Caravan’s future value of $10,000 in 2016 is actually slightly more than 50 percent of its original purchase price, a higher percentage than the Honda Odyssey.
The top-of-the-line 2012 Grand Caravan R/T is currently offering a $7,000 “Consumer Cash Discount”, plus a $1,500 “Bonus Cash Program” in Ontario, for a total rebate of $8,500. That brings its original $38,945 MSRP down to $30,445!
According to the Canadian Black Book, its Future Value in 2016 is $15,800, or 52 percent of its actual selling price.
Though import manufacturers typically offer fewer rebates and discounts than domestic automakers, Honda is currently offering an end-of-the-model-year rebate of $4,000 on the 2012 Odyssey, bringing its base price down to $25,990. That means that the Odyssey LX’s 2016 residual value of $13,200 is actually 51 percent of its original purchase price, basically tied with the Grand Caravan. However, Honda’s discount is only for cash purchasers—it doesn’t apply to leasing and financing payments—those are still based on the original MSRP of $29,990.
While it may be true that many Japanese-brand vehicles maintain a higher percentage of their original MSRP than American-brand vehicles and win more residual value awards than domestic vehicles, some domestic cars can actually be a better value, depending on how large their rebates are. An awards system that uses actual transaction prices rather than MSRPs would go a long way to making residual value awards more accurate and more equitable.
