Topic: Price of Oil

[ktm525]

You boys are smart. I have been saying for years that a natural hedge on gasoline prices is to own a nice portfolio of energy producers. It is the only way I can afford to feed the Land Rover

[Snowman]

So.....$0.85 CDN and $85 Oil by year end? 

[mmret]

Front end had a really big run today after about 11am. Coupled with CAD taking it on the chin and I gassed up tonight

[ArticSteve]

85 cent dollar quite doable.  Price of oil who friggin knows.  This is the seasonal low.

[Northernridge]

Well, when the Loonie was worth $1.07USD a few years ago I bought a bunch of 'em. If we get to .85 I think maybe I'll buy back the CDN $$.

[rrocket]

Price of oil will get pushed down to try and "starve" Putin out of the Ukraine.

Remember how cheap oil dropped down so quickly when he invaded Georgia?  They'll try and do the same here since Russia's economy is VERY dependent on high oil/gas prices.

[Northernridge]

Come to think of it should oil reach $85, all kinds of buying opportunities would appear.

[mmret]

Price of oil will get pushed down to try and "starve" Putin out of the Ukraine.

Remember how cheap oil dropped down so quickly when he invaded Georgia?  They'll try and do the same here.

Yeah not likely to work IMO.

SPR release is more likely to keep the American public happy enough to let them retaliate somehow than to actually starve Putin out. Brent crude matters more for that, and secondly, oil "speculators" will just push up longer dated prices, which is the economically logical reaction for the market.

I guess the US could ask their buddies in Saudi to crank up production to compensate. But somehow I doubt much will come of this.

I admit I haven't followed the Ukraine thing much but...and humor me here, isn't it the case that the majority of Crimean residents WANT to join Russia? If a referendum were held would it be honoured? Uncomfortable situation for several countries, really, to recognize separatist movements of any sort (Spain, UK, China...even Canada!). However for the US specifically I very much doubt there would be much backlash if the situation were reversed (ie: pro Ukraine part of Russia wants to join Ukraine).

So, really, just ideological politicking or more Great Game or is the issue very very specifically with the fact that Putin may have interfered with what is essentially another country's civil war (which, coming from the US, would be quite a pot-and-kettle).


Dexer! Down boy!

[rrocket]

Yeah not likely to work IMO.

It worked last time.  Go look at the chronology of Putin's invasion vs. crude prices.

[mmret]

This has something to do with Georgia I assume. Link me.

[rrocket]

This has something to do with Georgia I assume. Link me.

Yea, sorry.  Georgia.  Link you to what?  Compare the timeline of when Georgia invaded to when they finally GTFO.  Oil prices dropped like a rock.

When they first invaded, the price was ~$115.  Sanctions and political posturing followed.  When they GTFO oil had dropped to ~$77.  In about 1 month.  Russia does about 10 million barrels (IIRC) a day.  That's a heft chunk.  Not ALL of this oil price dropping was due solely to politics....but politics played a large role in it.

[mmret]

Dude. August 2008. You might recall that the financial world was literally on fire.

Entirely possible under the circumstances that financial matters prompted a quicker end to hostilities (officially the war lasted 5 days, which obviously isn't very long) but

1. it surely was not just the price of oil that was falling
2. there is very, very slim chance that the same level of financial disruption would happen this time around
3. there is 0% chance that the US would be willing to precipitate a massive global financial meltdown over Crimea (I also very much doubt that the more technocratic parts of US officialdom, ie: the Federal Reserve, would ever allow such a thing)

[rrocket]

Dude. August 2008. You might recall that the financial world was literally on fire.

Entirely possible under the circumstances that financial matters prompted a quicker end to hostilities (officially the war lasted 5 days, which obviously isn't very long) but

1. it surely was not just the price of oil that was falling
2. there is very, very slim chance that the same level of financial disruption would happen this time around
3. there is 0% chance that the US would be willing to precipitate a massive global financial meltdown over Crimea (I also very much doubt that the more technocratic parts of US officialdom, ie: the Federal Reserve, would ever allow such a thing)

Using their political influence to lower the cost of oil again would not on its own precipitate a global financial meltdown.    And you know that.  A downturn of only $10 per barrel costs Russia ~$100 million.  Per day.  And that's particularly painful to Russia, as oil/gas accounts for nearly 60% of total exports.

And while the "war" lasted 5 days, Russia occupied and blockaded Georgia for about month.

[EV Dan]

Price of oil will get pushed down to try and "starve" Putin out of the Ukraine.

Remember how cheap oil dropped down so quickly when he invaded Georgia?  They'll try and do the same here.

Yeah not likely to work IMO.

SPR release is more likely to keep the American public happy enough to let them retaliate somehow than to actually starve Putin out. Brent crude matters more for that, and secondly, oil "speculators" will just push up longer dated prices, which is the economically logical reaction for the market.

I guess the US could ask their buddies in Saudi to crank up production to compensate. But somehow I doubt much will come of this.

I admit I haven't followed the Ukraine thing much but...and humor me here, isn't it the case that the majority of Crimean residents WANT to join Russia? If a referendum were held would it be honoured? Uncomfortable situation for several countries, really, to recognize separatist movements of any sort (Spain, UK, China...even Canada!). However for the US specifically I very much doubt there would be much backlash if the situation were reversed (ie: pro Ukraine part of Russia wants to join Ukraine).

So, really, just ideological politicking or more Great Game or is the issue very very specifically with the fact that Putin may have interfered with what is essentially another country's civil war (which, coming from the US, would be quite a pot-and-kettle).


Dexer! Down boy!

Here is one point of view, not often voiced by western media:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/03/nato-peace-threat-ukraine-military-conflict

[rrocket]

Dan The Russian Sympathizer. 

Change your screen name to "Russian Dan"   

[mmret]

Dan The Russian Sympathizer. 

Change your screen name to "Russian Dan"   

I suspect you're joking, but in any case the article is more critical of the US / Nato than it is pro Russia tbh. And you have been quite critical of US foreign policy many a time IIRC.

[rrocket]

Dan The Russian Sympathizer. 

Change your screen name to "Russian Dan"   

I suspect you're joking, but in any case the article is more critical of the US / Nato than it is pro Russia tbh. And you have been quite critical of US foreign policy many a time IIRC.

While you were away, Dan was defending the Russian invasion/incursion (and support of the thugs) who shot down the commercial airline in the Ukraine.  You need to go read that thread in it's entirety to see why I'd refer to him as "Russian Dan".  We still love Dan despite this though.   

And yes..I am often critical of US foreign policy.  Especially when they invade sovereign countries.  Much like Russia is trying to do/doing in the Ukraine.

http://www.autos.ca/forum/index.php/topic,87075.0.html

[ArticSteve]

Stephen Harper pledges Canada’s ‘unblinking’ support for Ukraine

With bozo statements like that, oil will never drop.

Canada has no business in this civil war.   This is just useless EGO babble from the WORST PM this country has ever had.

[Snowman]

I'm surprised nobody wants to talk about how increasing American oil production will push the commodity price low enough to make higher-cost Canadian production unprofitable in the long term. 

[Sir Osis of Liver]

I'm surprised nobody wants to talk about how increasing American oil production will push the commodity price low enough to make higher-cost Canadian production unprofitable in the long term. 

US oil consumption is 18mmbpd and their production is ~11mmbpd. Their consumption has stabilized and their production is increasing at least for the short term.

The big question is what happens in China. If their economy can keep rolling, their increasing consumption can easily sop up any increase in US supply.



I'm stealing that image BTW.