Author Topic: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.  (Read 8893 times)

Offline X-Traction

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Every time ev's and hybrids come up for discussion, the comments tangent into efficiency and pollution impact.  There are all sorts of arguments about the pollution caused by making ev battery packs, comparisons to other means of travel, relative "greeness" of energy sources and on and on.

Finally, someone has gone to the trouble to quantify and compare all these factors.  So in future when such disagreements arise, just refer to this information.  The most interesting stuff about cars comes toward the end of the article: "Additional Infographic #2: Lifecycle emissions for gasoline vs electric cars."

It's about time such important data is easily available.

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/02/25/analysis/essential-infographics-climate-conscious-traveller
And some cretins think I hate cars.

Offline mmret

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2016, 08:29:24 pm »
Any publication from a climate focused website is likely to be biased. It is also sourcing other climate focused sources which are also likely biased in the same direction. This bias can clearly stack over "cycles", much like 1.445 can round to 2 after a few iterations.

Not saying that climate change isn't real or anything like that. But there is a lot of vitriolic shite and mindless clickbait on both sides of the debate. I remain entirely unconvinced that the manufacturing process to create the batteries (and their later disposal) is not a big potential environmental issue. Note how the study also focused only on CO2 emissions during the construction of EVs and regular cars, and not on other potential pollutants.
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Offline X-Traction

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2016, 10:09:07 pm »
Any publication from a climate focused website is likely to be biased. It is also sourcing other climate focused sources which are also likely biased in the same direction. This bias can clearly stack over "cycles", much like 1.445 can round to 2 after a few iterations.

Not saying that climate change isn't real or anything like that. But there is a lot of vitriolic shite and mindless clickbait on both sides of the debate. I remain entirely unconvinced that the manufacturing process to create the batteries (and their later disposal) is not a big potential environmental issue. Note how the study also focused only on CO2 emissions during the construction of EVs and regular cars, and not on other potential pollutants.

The data used typically does not need to be sourced from environmental organizations. And if you read the fine print, most of it wasn't.  The charts also happen to align with those that have been around for decades comparing the efficiency of various forms of transportation. From long before climate change became an issue.

Yes "there is a lot of vitriolic shite and mindless clickbait on both sides of the debate".  But a wide range of vile aggression up to and including death threats is almost entirely the output of the denier side.  This does not include their misinformation.  A comparison of the offerings of the two sides exposes the fact that one side is based pretty well on nonsense and bogus arguments, while the other side is based on peer-reviewed science.   As exposed in:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/

You'd buy a lottery ticket with a 97% chance of winning instead of one with a 3% chance of winning, so I don't see why some folks are buying into the 3% ticket when it comes to climate science.

I was surprised by the size of the increased inputs required to make batteries for ev's.  However, over the lifetime of the vehicles, even charged with dirty electricity, they still save emissions.  The batteries last so long no one yet has a good idea of how long they'll last.  And, the batteries are not simply "disposed of", as you suggest.  The batteries are very useful long after their life in cars, and are full of valuable stuff that can be reused.  Find out here:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2013/10/what-happens-to-electric-car-batteries-when-the-car-is-retired/index.htm

This information also shows how we can drastically reduce our carbon footprint from transportation without turning our lives upside down.  If one comes to regard climate change as a really serious issue, driving a Rav4 Hybrid instead of a regular Rav4 would seem like the sort of sacrifice a mature person would be willing to do. And someone on a Pacific island nation disappearing under rising water, observing your choice, might think that choosing, say, a Plug-in Prius would also not be an unreasonable sacrifice.  Not flying to Paris for the weekend on a private jet, however, would be a major sacrifice and you'll have to pry that out of my cold dying hands.   :)

Offline tooscoops

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2016, 01:17:54 pm »
interesting and good info... i'm sure there is always even more available, but to sift through it is just near impossible.

i think your last paragraph shows a bit of the fallacy though that causes the 3% bankers to get uppity... even the stats you give (which are pretty good) at no point says that a rav4 hybrid is significantly better than a gas one... they show the "best" hybrid, and an average suv... so something that will be greener than the ravH on one side, and something worse than the rav gas on the other... considering that the other processes are all nearly identical for the car mentioned, how much greener would that really be than the gasser when it all comes out in the wash? rather than buy any new car at all, the better environmental choice would be to keep what you have and try to drive more people around, would it not?

i'm not in the 97% group you mention, but i am also not some cave dwelling denier. anytime i have spoken with people on your side of the equation, they seem to forget that we exist... people that agree climate change is happening... people who believe much is caused (or at minimum, aggravated) by us... but don't think changing our method of propulsion today is going to somehow save the world. does that make me "immature"? no more so than it makes the ev crowd slightly ignorant.

living out west, i despised the smug arrogant ev people i knew... complained about my jeep (just a patriot!), yet bought a new electric car literally each year. what was worse? running my 4 cyl gas engine for 7 years and doing all i could to minimize travel and maximize occupancy, or them driving by themselves to the store down the road and having 6 or 7 new cars built to accommodate them?
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Offline X-Traction

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2016, 02:09:56 pm »
interesting and good info... i'm sure there is always even more available, but to sift through it is just near impossible.

i think your last paragraph shows a bit of the fallacy though that causes the 3% bankers to get uppity... even the stats you give (which are pretty good) at no point says that a rav4 hybrid is significantly better than a gas one... they show the "best" hybrid, and an average suv... so something that will be greener than the ravH on one side, and something worse than the rav gas on the other... considering that the other processes are all nearly identical for the car mentioned, how much greener would that really be than the gasser when it all comes out in the wash? rather than buy any new car at all, the better environmental choice would be to keep what you have and try to drive more people around, would it not?

i'm not in the 97% group you mention, but i am also not some cave dwelling denier. anytime i have spoken with people on your side of the equation, they seem to forget that we exist... people that agree climate change is happening... people who believe much is caused (or at minimum, aggravated) by us... but don't think changing our method of propulsion today is going to somehow save the world. does that make me "immature"? no more so than it makes the ev crowd slightly ignorant.

living out west, i despised the smug arrogant ev people i knew... complained about my jeep (just a patriot!), yet bought a new electric car literally each year. what was worse? running my 4 cyl gas engine for 7 years and doing all i could to minimize travel and maximize occupancy, or them driving by themselves to the store down the road and having 6 or 7 new cars built to accommodate them?

You raise some good points. 

I realize the Rav4 Hybrid isn't addressed in the charts. The charts would have been even better if they included more hybrids with equivalent non-hybrids.  This would also clarify the emission advantage hybrids have over non-hybrids.  I mentioned the Rav4 only incidentally in making the point that choosing a hybrid instead of an equivalent non-hybrid seems like such a small non-sacrifice that it seems odd so few people are willing to do so.

Though hybrids certainly don't lower emissions by the 80% we need to achieve to avoid long-term climate catastrophe, buying cars like hybrids is something many can do, who don't do it now, and with insignificant impact on their lifestyle.  At the same time I don't agree that hybrids provide a mileage increment that's too small to bother with.

No one said that improving the vehicle fleet is going to save the world.  It's only part of what needs to be done. What needs to be done won't be done if we do nothing to make the vehicle fleet less polluting.  Some of the dumbest and most damaging things being done are in the field of transportation. And within transportation, some of those dumb and damaging things are within the ways we choose and use cars.  The sum is made up of the parts, and it is impossible to change the whole without changing parts.

Just as the global total of emissions can be divvied down to smaller and smaller acts, right down to your own detailed transportation choices, so too will the improvements be achieved starting with the smallest transportation choices by individuals.

Your comments about causing new cars to be built is an interesting topic.  Certainly, as the chart shows, there is a climate impact to making a new car.  However, there's also an impact to operating an inefficient car over the long term.  These "scrap-it" programs for older cars are based on this subject.

Another given is that newer cars on average get better mileage.  There must be a sweet spot where it's better to turn over the fleet at a certain rate to minimize climate impact.  But without getting into that, there are some givens:

People could stop buying vehicles larger than they need.  Like, if you NEED a huge pickup to tow a trailer, consider renting the few times a year when you do this, or consider how much cheaper it might be to rent accommodation.  (Yes, these are generalities.)

The less someone drives, the less impact it has to drive an older/less efficient vehicle.

Lots of cars have equivalent or similar ones that get better mileage.

I don't know anyone with an ev, but a couple of my friends have hybrids.  Not only do they not seem smug about them, they don't even seem to be very interested in how hybrids work.  They have to be prompted to talk about their hybrids.  No doubt there are smug ev owners, but I'd say this is mostly a myth cooked up by cranks who think having a good life depends on lurching around in an SRT.  Ev owners certainly don't seek to draw attention to themselves, such as done by others who do all sorts of things to get attention.  Like noisy exhausts, aggressive driving, suspension lifts, body mod kits, etc.  There's a whole industry based on drivers attracting attention to their cars, and they don't sell stuff to make ev's more visible.

As for the Patriot, I've always thought the hatred against them was silly.  The offroad version is reasonably capable, although it's mileage is nothing to write home about.  It's a very sensible vehicle choice, and it's good to hear you are mindful of these issues when it comes to your vehicle operation.

Offline tooscoops

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2016, 08:26:25 pm »
appreciate the candor. too often this topic is just a back and forth screaming match!

although I'm no longer as deserving as I now drive a wrangler, i drive a long distance to work, and i ALWAYS am by myself for that drive!

I'm evil... i know it.

Offline random006

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2016, 01:05:19 pm »
Interesting comparison.  I too appreciate the effort in trying to quantify the total energy / pollution cost for any given mode of travel.

One problem I see is how the article trivializes the use of dirty sources for electrical generation in the US.  Coal is one of the biggest - if not the biggest - source of power generation in the USA.  The article singles out Utah, as if that is the only or worst offender.  That is simply not true.  See the map below for details:

http://hydroquebec.com/about/our-energy/hydropower/pdf/map-generation-canada-usa-june-2013-en.pdf


Given the above use of coal and that the warmer climate of most of the US is ideal for EV, I question the soundness of the ratios of numbers of passengers per EV that would begin to tip the scales in favour of EV in a region for which electrical generation is dominated by coal usage.  In short I would like to see some confirmation of the calculations.
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Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2016, 01:14:37 pm »
That chart is already a bit behind. The EIA currently (2015 numbers) has the US generation mix as follows:

Coal = 33%
Natural gas = 33%
Nuclear = 20%
Hydropower = 6%
Other renewables = 7%
Biomass = 1.6%
Geothermal = 0.4%
Solar = 0.6%
Wind = 4.7%
Petroleum = 1%
Other gases = <1%

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

Most currently operating coal plants were built in the 1960s and 1970s. As they come up for end of life decommissioning or refurbishment, the majority of them as being decommissioned. Natural gas plants are much cheaper to build and operate.

It`s funny how quickly things have changed. About 10-15 years ago over half of US generation was coal.

« Last Edit: May 30, 2016, 01:17:37 pm by Sir Osis of Liver »
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Offline safristi

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2016, 02:54:44 pm »
Not much of a change in coal IMHO.....Virginia there is a Santa Clause  despite Madame Clinton ;D   burn baby bern :D
Time is to stop everything happening at once

Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2016, 03:39:58 pm »
Not much of a change in coal IMHO.....Virginia there is a Santa Clause  despite Madame Clinton ;D   burn baby bern :D

Dropping ~20% in something like 10 years is a pretty huge change in an industry where most changes are very incremental.

In the last couple of years, 4 of the largest US coal companies have filed for chapter 11 protection.

Offline johngenx

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2016, 05:46:47 pm »
Everything about coal is terrible save for the price.

Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2016, 06:16:57 pm »
Emissions including radioactive particles, mercury, sulphur, arsenic, cyanide, various other heavy metals etc. At least you get 3 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of coal burnt.  ::)

Offline Ex-airbalancer

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2016, 06:52:15 pm »
Emissions including radioactive particles, mercury, sulphur, arsenic, cyanide, various other heavy metals etc. At least you get 3 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of coal burnt.  ::)
Sorry , I have call BS on the 3 to 1 you wrote  :nono:

It 2.86 to 1  ;D
http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/co2_article/co2.html

Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2016, 09:28:59 pm »
Emissions including radioactive particles, mercury, sulphur, arsenic, cyanide, various other heavy metals etc. At least you get 3 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of coal burnt.  ::)
Sorry , I have call BS on the 3 to 1 you wrote  :nono:

It 2.86 to 1  ;D
http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/co2_article/co2.html



 ;D

Offline safristi

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2016, 06:54:35 am »
Emissions including radioactive particles, mercury, sulphur, arsenic, cyanide, various other heavy metals etc. At least you get 3 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of coal burnt.  ::)
[/quo
All good essential trace elements in my once a day multivitamin.PS the world is not going to hell in a handbasket because of KARS.....you NON DENIERS need a new religion this one's getting old and boring..full of crappy "scientists" that wont be denied a research grant from scaremongering ignorant politicians now Naomi Kline is bloviating that Ft McMurray was due to Glowballs Warming   sheesh spare us yer BS science will ya :'( :'( :'( :'(

Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2016, 09:59:07 am »
Emissions including radioactive particles, mercury, sulphur, arsenic, cyanide, various other heavy metals etc. At least you get 3 tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of coal burnt.  ::)
[/quo
All good essential trace elements in my once a day multivitamin.PS the world is not going to hell in a handbasket because of KARS.....you NON DENIERS need a new religion this one's getting old and boring..full of crappy "scientists" that wont be denied a research grant from scaremongering ignorant politicians now Naomi Kline is bloviating that Ft McMurray was due to Glowballs Warming   sheesh spare us yer BS science will ya :'( :'( :'( :'(

Oh look. How original. Claim the science with the evidence is a religion. Claim that the entire scientific community is on the take, and not the "bloviators" funded by Big Carbon.

FFS even Exxon knew that global warming was an issue as far back as the 1970s, but spend the last 40 years funding groups to spread misinformation so they could continue to rake in money unimpinged for as long as possible.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/09/16/a-deep-dive-into-what-exxon-knew-about-global-warming-and-when-1978-it-knew-it/?_r=0

Your belief in denialism is on the same plain as the belief in a flat earth.

As far as Ft. Mac, no you can't attribute a single event to global warming. But the fire season is longer than it used to be. There's more fuel in a lot of the northern forests because pests like the pine bark beetle has moved north and are killing off a lot of trees. So events like Ft Mac are going to happen more frequently.

Offline ktm525

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2016, 10:28:33 am »
I have a simple question: Currently the world uses 90+ MM Bbls of oil per day. Anyone know how many MM tonnes off coal? How many mmcf of natural gas?

What is the equivalent amount of electrical power from the above three hydrocarbon sources? How many hydro plants is that? I need something I can visualize.


Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2016, 11:09:43 am »
I have a simple question: Currently the world uses 90+ MM Bbls of oil per day. Anyone know how many MM tonnes off coal? How many mmcf of natural gas?

What is the equivalent amount of electrical power from the above three hydrocarbon sources? How many hydro plants is that? I need something I can visualize.

Global coal consumption increased by more than 70% from 4 600 Mt in 2000 to an estimated 7 876 Mt in 2013, and at a 4.2% annual rate, coal was the fastest-growing primary energy source in the ten years through 2013. But demand growth has slowed of late. Preliminary data for 2014 showed the first actual decline since the 1990s, falling 0.9%; but the main driver of that result was a reported drop in Chinese demand that is based on preliminary data. Indeed, the IEA expects slowed but continued coal demand growth, with the Medium-Term Coal Report 2015 seeing a 0.8% increase through 2020.

http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/coal/

China uses half of global coal. But the economic slowdown and changes in government policy look to be reducing their demand for it.

Offline Ex-airbalancer

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2016, 02:01:15 pm »
I am surprised that anyone would question climate change or that humans were affecting the environment
Just look at the results of acid rain

Offline Sir Osis of Liver

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Re: At Last! Coherent comparisons of climate impacts of cars etc.
« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2016, 02:10:51 pm »
I am surprised that anyone would question climate change or that humans were affecting the environment
Just look at the results of acid rain

Especially after the leak of the Exxon internal documents that showed that not only did Exxon recognize the problem, they funded the groups that ran the FUD campaigns against the scientific community that are so often referenced by deniers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and_doubt
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 02:16:56 pm by Sir Osis of Liver »