Author Topic: Price of Oil  (Read 42463 times)

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #160 on: November 06, 2014, 02:06:56 pm »
In other words, are we facing more downside or upside from here? Time frame doesn't really matter.

It all depends on what particular stock you are holding.  In Canadian oil and gas you'll see a shake out.  All boats will not rise together as they did in 2013/2014.

As for the SNC Lavalin story regarding 80 USD oil for 1.5 years ....  :rofl2:   That company has zero credibility to forecast anything.  If it weren't for the free cash flow from the 407, they have a share price of 2 bucks.

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #161 on: November 06, 2014, 02:13:29 pm »
did you read that article in the G&M?

no, gotta link

can't get it...  I read it from the Globe Investor App.
Only, on my PC - it won't let me read it.  Stupid App won't even let me e-mail a link to myself.

but from the sounds of it, it's not really news to you.   ;)

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #162 on: November 06, 2014, 02:24:11 pm »
And the way I see it is IF it comes to NA production starting to shutter (due to costs)....  we're going to see some bumps in the road for the Canadian and American recovery.   Be it the oil sands or the fracking in the US, if those productions start coming off line, that'll be North American workers finding themselves laid off, which in turn will slow consumer spending, which in turn.........  well you know.


Oil exploration, development and production is very different throughout NA.  There be will winners and losers throughout depending on region.  Canadian production not looking too bad. 

The economic stimulus from cheaper gasoline in the US is big.  Much larger than the fallout from unemployed American Frackers.

There is no Canadian recovery.  It is what it is.  High public debt, high personal debt, high taxes, over regulation and major underemployment.

aka  HEM   :)

Offline Snowman

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #163 on: November 27, 2014, 06:25:20 pm »
Below $70  :)

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #164 on: November 28, 2014, 09:24:13 am »
some pretty good stocks got kicked in the nads...

could very much be a good time to time, for long term investors.

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #165 on: November 28, 2014, 11:56:09 am »
Cheap oil is here for another 10 years as all world economies are now in the lost decade IMO.

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #166 on: November 28, 2014, 12:37:41 pm »
Anyone know the global daily consumption in barrels over present production?

While we're digging out lots of oil, we're still burning through it pretty rapidly...aren't we?

And we are always just one political event away from a price spike.

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #167 on: November 28, 2014, 12:45:22 pm »
Anyone know the global daily consumption in barrels over present production?

While we're digging out lots of oil, we're still burning through it pretty rapidly...aren't we?

And we are always just one political event away from a price spike.

agreed!

and they say, the best cure for low oil prices...... is low oil prices.
nothing helps bring the economy back better than low prices.

will it be 10 years?  IMO --- not THAT long, but it'll be a while.

Sadly I have 15 to 20 years until retirement......... that means, plenty of time!!!!!

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #168 on: November 28, 2014, 12:58:51 pm »
I thought they said the best cure for low oil prices is war.

And the second best is catastrophic weather events and environmental disasters.

...investing is depressing.  :-[

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #169 on: November 28, 2014, 01:32:50 pm »
I thought they said the best cure for low oil prices is war.

And the second best is catastrophic weather events and environmental disasters.

...investing is depressing.  :-[

all true.

so, lower prices result in more spending and consumption.
give it time, people stop thinking about gas being so expensive and people stop thinking about fuel economy.

what does 95% of the population do with extra cash, spend it.
So if you're used to spending $50 to fill 'er up and now it's $35... you can bet what's going to happen with that $15

War, political issues, storms, terrorists, natural disasters... all will happen at some point... and likely swing the prices back up. 

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #170 on: November 28, 2014, 01:36:29 pm »
Quote
Anyone know the global daily consumption in barrels over present production?

it truly depends who you ask, however.....

EIA made significant changes to its forecast global oil balance for this month's STEO. EIA expects that global oil markets will be looser than projected in last month's STEO, as global oil supply outpaces consumption by a larger amount, resulting in a global stock build of 0.4 million bbl/d in the fourth quarter of 2014 and a build of 0.4 million bbl/d in 2015. EIA's global supply forecast was revised upward by 0.2 million bbl/d to average 92.9 million bbl/d in 2015, mostly reflecting a smaller decline in Saudi Arabia's production compared with last month's forecast. The global demand forecast was revised downward by 0.2 million bbl/d to average 92.5 million bbl/d in 2015, based on weaker global economic growth prospects for next year.

Saudi Arabia's role in the oil market going forward is highly uncertain. Saudi Arabia has stated that it would rather maintain its export market share than cut production to keep prices higher. In the past, Saudi Arabia often played the role of the swing producer, cutting its production to accommodate supply growth elsewhere or increasing its output level to make up for a supply shortfall. EIA assumes that Saudi Arabia will continue to play some role as a swing producer, but perhaps to a lesser extent, as the country is sensitive to significant losses in market share. Saudi Arabia's production is still projected to decline in 2015 compared with this year, but by a smaller amount than previously expected. EIA projects that Saudi Arabia will cut production below its current level of 9.5 million bbl/d to avoid further downward pressure on oil prices amid high non-OPEC supply growth, but will maintain output above 9.0 million bbl/d through 2015.

EIA's projected global oil balance may be looser or tighter than expected depending on changes to Saudi Arabia's production level, Libya's supply outages, and global demand. Libya's crude oil production reached 1.0 million bbl/d in October 2014, its highest production level since early July 2013. However, Libya's production has since fallen because of new production outages. Intermittent supply outages in Libya will most likely persist as the country faces political instability and a deteriorated security environment in parts of the country.


http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm


Offline bye

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #171 on: November 28, 2014, 02:12:14 pm »
Well, my family is not really concerned about the price of oil, as the majority of the driving is my commute, which is 100% electric. 
Turns out I thought I was buying my Smart ED for partially practical reasons like environment and fuel economy, but it ended up winning me (and my wife) over for it's fun to drive aspects.

We test drove a Tesla last week and it's only a matter of time when we are a 100% electric car only family, mostly for the fun to drive quotient.

Most people own more car than they need, so gas prices are simply part of the equation, but once they experience something that rides with more refinement, and trust me, the effortless speed and quiet thrust of an electric motor powered car nails the luxury element if you ask me.

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #172 on: November 28, 2014, 03:03:22 pm »

Offline Ex-airbalancer

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #173 on: November 28, 2014, 03:12:06 pm »

Offline Snowman

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #174 on: December 08, 2014, 11:59:52 am »
So.....$0.85 CDN and $85 Oil by year end?  :)

So here we are and I would have never thought oil would be at $65, I was off by +$23  :)

Offline ArticSteve

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #175 on: December 08, 2014, 12:11:50 pm »
You may very well make that 85 cent prediction.   :-X

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #176 on: December 08, 2014, 12:19:13 pm »
one exec was quoted saying he thinks it'll bottom out at $30

Offline Snowman

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #177 on: December 08, 2014, 12:55:15 pm »
one exec was quoted saying he thinks it'll bottom out at $30

If it goes below $50 the capital flow spigot to the Oil Sands will be turned off fully.

Offline Snowman

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #178 on: December 08, 2014, 01:00:54 pm »
one exec was quoted saying he thinks it'll bottom out at $30

If it goes below $50 the capital flow spigot to the Oil Sands will be turned off fully.

Cheap oil....it's a good time to go to war.....

I think cheap oil is the new war by the west to gain the upper-hand. This is all by design  :)

Offline blotter

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Re: Price of Oil
« Reply #179 on: December 08, 2014, 01:03:45 pm »
one exec was quoted saying he thinks it'll bottom out at $30

If it goes below $50 the capital flow spigot to the Oil Sands will be turned off fully.

Cheap oil....it's a good time to go to war.....

I think cheap oil is the new war by the west to gain the upper-hand. This is all by design  :)

agreed.   It was an exec from Canadian Oil Sands Limited (IIRC) that threw the $30 price out there.