Author Topic: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit  (Read 540 times)


Offline rrocket

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2012, 08:59:29 pm »
Is "reinvented" a fancy way to say "bailed out"??   :stick:
How fast is my Supra?  I sh*t on Cessnas from a roll....

Offline articsteve

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2012, 08:59:57 pm »
Cato will write anything to make a living.  Can you blame him.  It's cold outside.  :)

27 Sep 2011 – One of the legacy costs that GM was not able to reduce in the bailout was pension costs, a whopping $128b obligation as of the end of 2010.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/09/with-liabilities-looming-gm-and-uaw-agree-to-pension-buyouts-but-what-about-the-workers/
“Frankly, we are not going to ever defeat the insurgency,”     Billions for jets and pennies for vets; Harponi is MAGNIFICENT.

Offline rrocket

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2012, 10:58:46 pm »
This is one thing I was worried about when UAW become part owner of GM was who is their master?  Do they try to do what's best for GM and maximize profits, since they are part owner?  Or do they try and screw GM and do what's best for their union members?

Huge conflict of interest.  Which side will undo the UAW??

Offline mmret

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2012, 01:16:40 am »
Devil is in the details with respect to pension accounting. US regulation on this is pretty bad. I believe some plans out there use discount rates of 8-9% (justified by sayings its the historical long run return on the S&P500...which is retarded to use as a discount rate and should be illegal, but its too complex for most people to understand so...).

Sad reality is that the inevitable pension blowup is like the 3rd pillar of fiscal doom in the US (the first two of course being social security and medicare/medicaid).
Everything in life is relative.

Offline safristi

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2012, 07:28:14 am »
 ::) they BLOWED UP them pensions MIGHTY fine those last 20 years or so..............not just in the Car INDUSTRY!!!......public pension are massive albatrosses around nearly every States neck........

   teachers and cops retiring in their mid 50's with 6 figure ($100,000 plus ) pensions.................somethings gotta "GIVE" ;) :D ;)..the other taxpayers  :'(.............the UAW is starting their usual B/S about "negotiating".........read the Autoextremist site...........
THERE IS NO CURE FOR "LOTUS"......ONLY TREATMENT.....

Offline Snowman

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2012, 01:10:32 pm »
::) they BLOWED UP them pensions MIGHTY fine those last 20 years or so..............not just in the Car INDUSTRY!!!......public pension are massive albatrosses around nearly every States neck........

   teachers and cops retiring in their mid 50's with 6 figure ($100,000 plus ) pensions.................somethings gotta "GIVE" ;) :D ;)..the other taxpayers  :'(.............the UAW is starting their usual B/S about "negotiating".........read the Autoextremist site...........

 ??? Which teachers and cops? none that I know in Ontario will be getting six figures.

Offline wing

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2012, 02:57:55 pm »
Love the link autos.ctv.ca. LOL. Good thing we changed our name hahhaha


Offline safristi

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2012, 04:15:34 pm »
::) they BLOWED UP them pensions MIGHTY fine those last 20 years or so..............not just in the Car INDUSTRY!!!......public pension are massive albatrosses around nearly every States neck........

   teachers and cops retiring in their mid 50's with 6 figure ($100,000 plus ) pensions.................somethings gotta "GIVE" ;) :D ;)..the other taxpayers  :'(.............the UAW is starting their usual B/S about "negotiating".........read the Autoextremist site...........

 ??? Which teachers and cops? none that I know in Ontario will be getting six figures.
.............................USA figures particulary in the California and "RICHER " ha Ha for now States..............
    here 70% of full salary would be in the $70's for the same workers Nice Pension + CPP and OAS..............and pesonal savings.....ca ching.............. :banana: :lick:

Offline mmret

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2012, 05:05:31 pm »
::) they BLOWED UP them pensions MIGHTY fine those last 20 years or so..............not just in the Car INDUSTRY!!!......public pension are massive albatrosses around nearly every States neck........

   teachers and cops retiring in their mid 50's with 6 figure ($100,000 plus ) pensions.................somethings gotta "GIVE" ;) :D ;)..the other taxpayers  :'(.............the UAW is starting their usual B/S about "negotiating".........read the Autoextremist site...........

 ??? Which teachers and cops? none that I know in Ontario will be getting six figures.

Very much doubt that it will be $100k+ for the rank and file.

That said, the mid 50s retirement age thing is a big problem. Think about it. Start working around 25 give or take a year, work until 55 (this is the usual "85 factor" thing, age + years of service = 85 --> full pension), live until 80+. Spouse lives another 5. So that's 30 years of work for 30 years of retirement payments? Thats an absurd rate of return.

Very rough calculation, speaking in real dollars, lets say so and so starts off today at $45k $40k, gets a raise of $1k per year in real terms. Pension amount is 50% of last 5 years (I think most pensions are probably higher, but lets run with it). Works from 25 to 55 and then lives until 85. Contribution rate is 10% of gross per year. All in real dollars. Pension would be in this case $33,500/yr real.

Thats an IRR of 6.6%. In real terms. Supposedly "guaranteed and risk free". Good luck with that. :)

Notes
1. You might say, well suppose this person only lives to 75. IRR is 5.96% real. Not that much less (PV of those last 10 payments is rather small compared to the first 20).

2. It gets worse if you add stuff in like CPP top ups for 55-65, etc etc. Also I think I might have been conservative (with respect to making my point) on the contribution rate and payout amount assumptions, though I'm not actually super familiar with the terms of all of these pensions, not even my own haha. If you use an 8% contribution rate and 67% of last 5 year average payout then the IRR is a whopping 8.55% real to age 85. :)

3. If you want to make things more sustainable, go with a 65 retirement age and 10% contribution, 50% of last 5 years, even though the annual pension is larger the IRR is about 4.14% (to age 85) and 4.79% (to age 95). Considerably more sustainable although still really high. Hardly a risk free asset.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2012, 05:12:08 pm by mmret »

Offline Snowman

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2012, 05:43:03 pm »
::) they BLOWED UP them pensions MIGHTY fine those last 20 years or so..............not just in the Car INDUSTRY!!!......public pension are massive albatrosses around nearly every States neck........

   teachers and cops retiring in their mid 50's with 6 figure ($100,000 plus ) pensions.................somethings gotta "GIVE" ;) :D ;)..the other taxpayers  :'(.............the UAW is starting their usual B/S about "negotiating".........read the Autoextremist site...........

 ??? Which teachers and cops? none that I know in Ontario will be getting six figures.
.............................USA figures particulary in the California and "RICHER " ha Ha for now States..............
    here 70% of full salary would be in the $70's for the same workers Nice Pension + CPP and OAS..............and pesonal savings.....ca ching.............. :banana: :lick:

Sounds more like it. Wife had DB plan will full benefits in retirement until death. I won't be complaining  :)

Offline life in the slow lane

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2012, 12:58:06 pm »
::) they BLOWED UP them pensions MIGHTY fine those last 20 years or so..............not just in the Car INDUSTRY!!!......public pension are massive albatrosses around nearly every States neck........

   teachers and cops retiring in their mid 50's with 6 figure ($100,000 plus ) pensions.................somethings gotta "GIVE" ;) :D ;)..the other taxpayers  :'(.............the UAW is starting their usual B/S about "negotiating".........read the Autoextremist site...........

 ??? Which teachers and cops? none that I know in Ontario will be getting six figures.
.............................USA figures particulary in the California and "RICHER " ha Ha for now States..............
    here 70% of full salary would be in the $70's for the same workers Nice Pension + CPP and OAS..............and pesonal savings.....ca ching.............. :banana: :lick:

Where did you get your figures. We have a friend that lives in California, was a school teacher and retired at age 65. Pension is under $35,000 before taxes.

Offline safristi

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2012, 09:43:42 am »
 ::) yer friend was HOSED............so sorry.................look the stats up yerself........... :banghead:

Offline richink

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Re: Top auto story of 2011 : Reinvented car companies in Detroit
« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2012, 03:53:21 pm »
Re-invented? Is that like how my bungpiece gets "re-invented" after a few doses of Prep-H?
Richard - that's my opinion and I stand by it.