Topic: Black Book vs Offered Trade Value

[AP]

There does not appear to be a thread dedicated to this (forgive me if I missed it), so here goes:

How reliable a measure is Canadian Black Book for the offered trade value?

I am thinking of trading my 2010 Ford F150 4x4 XLT with 16,000 km.  Black Black ranges from a low of $22,770 to a high of $25,220. 

I know everybody says this, but the truck actually meets the criteria for the high trade value.  It needs no reconditioning and has no dents, scratches or the like.  The passenger seat has only been occupied a few times.  Over half the mileage was on separate winter tires / rims.  The factory exhaust only has 100 km on it (I installed a Flowmaster catback as soon as I got it home, which I would remove before the trade).  It has the 5.4 engine and Tow and Go package, though it has never towed anything.  No accidents of any sort.  You get the idea.

Is the high trade value realistic to expect?  Thoughts?

[airbalancer]

do you have a lot of lub 
With the discounts that have been out there on truck I think you be luck to get in high teens
I got 16 gs off my truck in Aug, and I think my son got 12 gs  off a ford

[AP]

Fair point Airbalancer. 

But it would seem rather odd if the Canadian Black Book were so far off actual trade values.  I mean manufacturer websites themselves direct consumers to the Canadian Black Book to get a sense of trade value. 

Could it really be so far off?

[aquadorhj]

Could it really be so far off?

possibly.

last time i looked, my jetta was worth 7k in great condition(according to blackbook).  4-5 in so so condition.  they sell privately for right around 7 or under, so blackbook IS optimistic..

[wing]

Wow I'll buy your truck



If I can sell mine....

[ktm525]

Never pretty when selling a 1 year old vehicle.

[articsteve]

Is the high trade value realistic to expect?  Thoughts?

When "trading in" the CBB "values" are very nebulous in that it all depends on the margin (aka "gross") that the new purchase has built into it.  Consequently, the trade "value" can be all over the place.

However with your mileage, I`d expect min $24K assuming this is a CrewCab regardless of what brand your buying next.

Do not mention anything about the exhaust.   

[bridgecity]

Whatcha buyin?

[Julie]

I've seen multiple instances were Black Book was lower than the corresponding wholesale price in the Red Book.  Red Book reads like a dealer's guide, with greater precision.  You can only borrow it at the library.  Black Book reads like a consumer's guide, has all this advertising from dealers associated with it.

Wonder if the Black Book purposely states values as lower.  So that the dealer can show you the Black Book and say, "See?  Your car's not worth much..."

What do you say artic?

[articsteve]

I don't think the CBB intentionally low balls prices, but they must make sure that they give dealers lots of room for error.     Whatever one thinks about the CBB, it's widely used and it's used to "educate" the trade-in-ee as you mentioned.

[2latecrew]

I don't think the CBB intentionally low balls prices, but they must make sure that they give dealers lots of room for error.     Whatever one thinks about the CBB, it's widely used and it's used to "educate" the trade-in-ee as you mentioned.

The Black Book is very "flexible" Artic is right it is often used to "educate" the person trading in that their car is really only worth "x". That deductions need to be made and that based on what the dealer has seen "at auction" etc locally that your trade in just isn't worth high blackbook.

Yet if you want to buy a used car that car the dealer has? Well all of a sudden the Blackbook vastly understates what it is/was worth. When they took that in on trade they paid way over Blackbook and even though there appears to be 5K difference between high Blackbook and retail they really are making almost nothing . 

[sailor723]

I don't think the CBB intentionally low balls prices, but they must make sure that they give dealers lots of room for error.     Whatever one thinks about the CBB, it's widely used and it's used to "educate" the trade-in-ee as you mentioned.

The Black Book is very "flexible" Artic is right it is often used to "educate" the person trading in that their car is really only worth "x". That deductions need to be made and that based on what the dealer has seen "at auction" etc locally that your trade in just isn't worth high blackbook.

Yet if you want to buy a used car that car the dealer has? Well all of a sudden the Blackbook vastly understates what it is/was worth. When they took that in on trade they paid way over Blackbook and even though there appears to be 5K difference between high Blackbook and retail they really are making almost nothing . 

A cynical but all too often accurate description of CBB use by dealers in my experience.

[Julie]

When I was at the library comparing wholesale prices in the Red Book vs. Black Book, which I assume should be apples to apples, the Black Book was always significantly lower, at least for the examples I looked at.

What was interesting was that the Red Book read like a "dealer-to-dealer" book.  So wholesale was what dealers paid at auction, on average, and of course the corresponding "retail" values in the Red Book were higher to take into account reconditioning and profit margin, etc.

Black Book just seems like a marketing tool to me, made in conjunction with the dealers.

Appreciate the input artic.

[AP]

Whatcha buyin?

Funny enough I am thinking of trading it on a new 2011 F150.  The Recycle Your Ride and Costco discounts have resulted in some pretty economical deals.  If my 2010 is in the range of the high value specified by the Canadian Black Book, I will not be out of pocket much at all to upgrade. 

[AP]

Thanks for the input everyone.  I will repost once I get a trade offer. 

If my truck does not qualify for the high end of the Canadian Black Book value, then I will be sceptical as to whether any vehicle qualifies.

[ktm525]

Whatcha buyin?

Funny enough I am thinking of trading it on a new 2011 F150.  The Recycle Your Ride and Costco discounts have resulted in some pretty economical deals.  If my 2010 is in the range of the high value specified by the Canadian Black Book, I will not be out of pocket much at all to upgrade. 

Good luck. All those incentives lathered on drives your used ride down the same amount. I believe the saying is there is no such thing as a free lunch? Unless you find a rube...

[safristi]

..maybe WE could develop a TRUTH BOOK....
 that POS is worth $750...but your baby is invaluable...........

[AP]

Good luck. All those incentives lathered on drives your used ride down the same amount. I believe the saying is there is no such thing as a free lunch? Unless you find a rube...

I thought the same thing but concluded it was worth pursuing in any event.  The incentives have been around long enough to be reflected in the Canadian Book Book values.  Also, the current programs on F150s are not necessarily available to everyone, e.g., Costco rebate and Recycle Your Ride.  Targeted incentives presumably don't grind down trade values as much cash rebates open to everyone but we shall see.

[Cord]

It is folly to take Black Book numbers at face value and expect them to be accurate. I've found that the key to using the Black Book is in learning how it relates to your local market. For example, diesel trucks typically call for an add of thousands of dollars for the diesel motor. In our market, retail prices don't justify that addition. As a result, a consumer that uses Black Book numbers to value his diesel trade-in will be significantly overvaluing his trade in our market.

A few months ago, the current Black Book had the average value of a 1 year old Ranger higher than the price of a new one on ford.ca.

These issues are caused by the delay in publishing the data and the fact that the data only represents a specific market and cannot be applied directly to every market in Canada.

For an experienced appraiser, Black Book can be a useful guide. But experience in how to use it is the key. Having said that, it would be a foolish appraiser that relied solely on Black Book. With the inventory management tools available to dealers these days it is easy to see exactly what similar vehicles are retailing for in a given area. This provides a more accurate pricing picture than what any "book" can provide.

[AP]

First trade offer received was $23,000, just above the low trade value specified by the Canadian Black Book.