Sherif Marakby, Director of Ford's Hybrid and Electric vehicles program,comments, "We do believe that out of hybrids, plug-ins, and battery-electrics, our higher volume solution we think the market will continue to expand is hybrids -- hybrid electric vehicles."
For its next generation hybrids, Ford will be assembling its battery packs at the Ford’s Rawsonville Plan in Michigan, shifting production from Mexico. Its transaxles, currently produced by a Japanese supplier will be made at Ford’s Van Dyke Transmission Plant, also in Ford's home state of Michigan.
Ford's first BEV, the Ford Transit EV, will launch later this year. Volume will be very low initially -- possibly only 1,000 vehicles according to Mr. Marakby. He says that production will largely depend on fleet demand.
2011 Ford is releasing a BEV consumer vehicle, which has now been officially named as the 2012 Ford Focus Electric. Ford isn't betting on big customer demand. Mr. Marakby states, "Volume expectations as we've announced is still below 10,000 units on these vehicles... We're not planning 100,000 of these."
He elaborates, "The battery electrics because of some of the challenges... cold temperature, practicality, no engine, range -- we believe that's still going to be in the low volume. That's why we're planning the low volume. If the market takes off and there's a lot of interest, we have the technology and we can ramp up the volume."
That may be necessary, given that the Nissan LEAF -- Ford's primary competitor -- has sold out until mid-2011 with 17,000 preorders placed in the U.S. and Japan. Nissan is bringing three factories online and plans on producing 200,000 LEAFs globally a year within a couple years -- an incredibly high volume. Even GM is talking about building 30,000 Volts in 2012 (with 10,000 in 2010/2011) -- though the Volt is in a slightly different class given that it's an gasoline extended-range battery electric vehicle.
But Mr. Marakby says that the initial enthusiasm may wane when customers encounter the headaches that come with BEVs. He elaborates:
You're relying significantly at the battery being at this nice temperature range when you can't guarantee that in every condition. Sure, if you charge it at night, every day, [but] you have to alter your behavior to do that.
These vehicles aren't good for everyone.
So why is Ford bothering at all? It seems, based on what Mr. Marakby said, the reasoning boils down to two key points. First, Ford believes that some customers will still buy BEVs despite the problems -- Ford's diverse approach assumes that customers want a variety of different kinds of vehicles.
Secondly, while a battery pack does not currently equal a gas tank in energy density per space and is still very expensive, Ford realizes that eventually battery tech may become affordable and reliable enough to become the best, most affordable solution for the majority of its customers. So Ford is getting its feet wet, without diving in, in order to position itself to be on top of this market when it matures. And the key word there, if Ford's assessment is accurate, is "when".
Also launching in 2012 will be Ford's first plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.
Like GM's 2011 Chevy Volt (to be produced by the end of 2010) the 2013 Ford PHEV will have a gas engine and a battery, rechargeable by plugging in. However, GM's electrified vehicle is a so-called "series" electric in which all drive power is provided by the electric drive motor(s). The gas engine will only be used as a generator to charge the batteries or directly produce electricity for the motor.
The Ford PHEV, by contrast is a "power-split" architecture. Drive power will be provided by both an electric motor and a gas-motor, working in coordination.
Mr. Marakby's team at Ford believes this is a far better approach than the one GM is taking. Series hybrids suffer the same temperature issues as battery electric vehicles, while power-split designs do not.
Mr. Marakby remarks:
If you look at the battery technology and whether its a battery electric or an extended range battery electric or a series plug-in, you are relying heavily on that battery. You're counting on that battery at all temperature conditions and all driving conditions.
It's not just the temperature issues, but performance. If you want maximum torque as you're getting on the highway and your battery can't provide it and you're relying the battery that's an issue. And it get worse at colder temperatures and hotter temperatures.
So, with a blended plug in you don't have these issues, you can run 100 degrees (Fahrenheit), you can run 120 degrees (Fahrenheit) -- any temperature you want. If the battery can't provide it during that short duration of when you need that the engine will complement because you have a full mechanical drive.
http://www.dailytech.com/Fords+Electric+Vision+New+Hybrids+700+MileRange+PHEV+by+2012/article19542.htm
