Author Topic: Will China become the new Japan?  (Read 568 times)

Offline EV Dan

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Will China become the new Japan?
« on: July 23, 2010, 08:32:16 pm »
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/nikkei-editorial-urges-japan-to-match-us-china-ev-moves-.html#more

"Nikkei Editorial Urges Japan to Match US, China EV Moves

An editorial in Japan’s Nikkei argues that Japanese automakers need to respond aggressively to compete in the rapidly changing global market for electric vehicles.

    ...both Toyota and Honda had until recently thought that the era of hybrids would continue for a while before electric vehicles began to gain popularity. But the automakers are now accelerating their efforts to develop electric cars, and there are two main reasons for this.

    One is the tough new fuel economy rules the US administration of President Barack Obama will introduce in 2012...The second reason for the heightened focus on electric cars is China’s move to promote them. At the end of 2009, Beijing announced a target of increasing the share of electric cars in overall domestic production to 10% in 2015. The government has also created a subsidy program to boost sales of electric vehicles by providing up to 60,000 yuan (770,000 yen) [US$8,800] per unit.

    ...Beijing has apparently decided to catapult the nation’s auto industry into the electric age by skipping the transitional era of hybrids. The auto industry is clearly facing a major turning point, and trends in China, now the world’s largest car market, will have a huge impact on the global automaking industry.

    ...China is bent on taking the leadership in carmaking by taking advantage of the revolution now taking shape in the industry. Japanese carmakers need to respond to China’s moves by developing electric vehicles that can compete favorably with rival Chinese offerings in this crucial market."

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Wow. Almost 9 grand is a steep subsidy towards a new car, since AFAIK Chinese automarket is already less expensive than here, so I figure it might actually make owning an EV a lot more economical than a hybrid or even an ICE car. However, just like the article suggests, it is not a free candy. If China manages to mass produce EVs there is a good chance they will sooner or later export them to NA and even if not will take the 1st place in manufacturing Li batteries and OEM components for EVs, just like now they do with parts  for virtually every major car maker.
I suppose they have every opportunity to succeed, as they did in home electronics, appliances, computers and most of everything else that needed to be put together, electrified bikes and mopeds being the closest example to the auto industry template. And with the latter they blew any competition out of the water, turning out cheap and reliable machines.
Looks like Toyota and the pack should really get their act together, rather than entertaining us with 12 mile plug-in Prii. 
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Offline dr_spock

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2010, 09:07:22 pm »
If I am not mistaken, China has big smog problems in their major cities.  It would be in their national self-interest to reduce emissions. 

Offline Erik

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2010, 09:14:31 pm »
Probably more importantly, China is wondering where to get the oil to feed all of those cars. They are building a TON (did I read 27? I could be wrong on that number) nuclear power plants right now. So I think they are betting on electric being the only way for them in the future.
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Offline airbalancer

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2010, 10:02:25 pm »

Offline ovr50

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2010, 10:15:30 pm »
12 on line, 23 to be built
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

Plus, I think, something like 300 coal fired power plants are either being built or about to be. Air pollution anyone?
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Offline mmret

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2010, 10:24:40 pm »
The great thing is that while this may screw over Sinopec, CNPC, and CNOOC, the money just ends up going to State Grid (and some to Areva/GE etc.) instead. From one SOE to another.

And on net its a benefit due to presumably less environmental costs.
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Offline Erik

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Offline EV Dan

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2010, 06:15:40 pm »
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/07/renewable-energy-policy-update-for-china

I figure BEVs is the long term future of the auto industry and it's great China is making a big bet on them. IMO besides the affordable cars themselves and charging infrastructure one vital link we are missing here are range extenders. I know there are Volts and Fiskers, but I think they will prove to be a dead end, not from design but economical point of view. They will eventually be outsold by cheaper BEVs.
The range extenders I'm talking about are the utility trailer type, mobile generators. I mean, why pay for two cars in one (ER-EV) when it can be made a simple EV and for those 1% cases when ppl go on longer trips they stop by the Home Depot, Uhaul or such place and rent a "charger" for as long as they need it. No more range anxiety and the cost of the rental will likely be comparable to the typical yearly maintenance costs of an ICE or ER-EV vehicle. Obviously EPA and NRC will need to make sure that these trailers meet some basic at first emission reqs and then as the market matures, there will be micro-turbine based and low emission diesel generators. Even at this moment, industrial and contractor grade generators are much cleaner than all those two stroke oil burning landscaping engines. So what say you, will the option of having charging infrastructure in cities and mobile range extenders for occasional trips make you consider an EV as the only or main vehicle in the family? Or would you still prefer having a heavier, costlier and more complex setup of the Volt? 

Offline Erik

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2010, 07:10:30 pm »
Yup.
Would much rather have the Volt. Most people don't seem to know how to drive with a trailer anyway. Plus,I like the freedom of being able to go where I want to go, when I want to go there, and not have to rely on a rental to get me there.

Sounds almost like the old days, where you would change horses many times during a long journey...

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Re: Will China become the new Japan?
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2010, 06:40:22 am »
Not me.  At my age I will live with an ICE vehicle for the remained of my driving life.  No battery power for me. Especially I would not have a range extender that one had to tow on a trailer... what a kludge.  I do see the point of a Volt type car for specific places with particular pollution problems.
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