http://www.globeauto.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061206.wxrminivans06/GAStory/Business/Struggling minivan a bad omen for Chrysler
GREG KEENAN
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Minivan market leader Chrysler Group may have to scale back production of minivans to a single assembly plant, industry sources say, amid sharply declining demand for a vehicle that has defined suburbia for more than two decades.
Chrysler is projecting output of between 430,000 and 480,000 minivans annually when redesigned Dodge Caravans and Chrysler Town and Countrys go into production next year, industry sources said.
"That's being highly optimistic," said one high-ranking industry source, who said production of 400,000 is a more realistic figure.
Chrysler makes minivans in Windsor, Ont., and St. Louis, but 400,000 vehicles a year is not enough to keep two plants running full time. "The question is: Do you need two plants? And the answer is no," said another industry source familiar with the minivan segment.
The St. Louis plant is in the most danger, while the three-shift Windsor operation is probably safe, the sources said.
DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group is examining all aspects of its operations after a $1.5-billion (U.S.) third-quarter operating loss, and industry analysts and sources anticipate a cost-cutting plan early next year that will include assembly plant closings. A plant in Newark, Del., that assembles Dodge Durango sport utility vehicles appears to be most in danger of closing, but the St. Louis minivan plant could also be on the bubble if Chrysler does not find new models to build there, industry sources said.
DaimlerChrysler Canada Inc. spokesman Ed Saenz said the company does not comment on future product strategy or the outlook for production.
Minivan sales are sliding in both the Canadian and U.S. markets amid the soaring popularity and availability of so-called crossover utility vehicles (CUVs) and an aging population that is seeking less space, but more comfort.
"There's no growth left in that segment," said John Casesa, an industry analyst and managing partner of Casesa Shapiro Group LLC, who noted that minivan sales have been declining since the beginning of the decade.
There's probably room for Chrysler, Honda Motor Co. Ltd., Toyota Motor Corp. and "one or two other pretenders," Mr. Casesa said, noting that Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. intend to exit the minivan market altogether.
Ford will stop selling its Freestar minivan next April and said last week it has halted production of the vehicles in Oakville, Ont., for November and December to concentrate on the new CUVs it is making there. GM has earmarked its minivan plant in Doraville, Ga., for permanent closing.
Canadians and Americans drove off dealers' lots in more than 1.6 million new minivans when the market peaked in 2000. The segment slid to 1.277 million last year and sales slumped a further 12 per cent in Canada as of the end of October and about 9 per cent in the U.S. market as of the end of November. The slump in sales in Canada means sales of CUVs will surpass those of minivans this year for the first time.
Chrysler's recent peak performance of 615,500 sales in 1998 gave it 42.5 per cent of the minivan market.
These are crucial vehicles for the Chrysler Group, which was the first auto maker to introduce a minivan in the 1980s. Its domination of the segment in the 1980s helped the then-Chrysler Corp. recover from a brush with bankruptcy. In the 1990s, minivans helped generate billions of dollars in profits for the company.
Although that domination has been gradually whittled away, Chrysler still sells more minivans than any other auto maker and held 37 per cent of the segment last year.
Minivans represented 20 per cent of Chrysler's total sales of 2.4 million vehicles in Canada and the United States last year.
"The market shifts so rapidly now that there are no longer any cash cows," Mr. Casesa said.
Chrysler has been able to maintain its lead by being the first to develop new features for its vehicles. It was the first to offer a second sliding door in the 1990s and its second- and third-row seats that fold into the floor were a major innovation this decade.
The next generation of the vehicles will include a rotating passenger seat, sources said, that will enable the seat to be turned around. Minivan sales decline
Canada United States
2000 TOTAL: 1,615,462 244,375 1,371,087
2005 TOTAL: 1,277,314 171,534 1,105,780