Basically.
OK, so your current overage charge would be 9000km * $0.08 per km = $720
$1800-720/3 months left = $360/month lease payments
You're already 9000km over, so you average about 2300km/month driving
Times $0.08, your overage charge is $180 per month, were you to keep driving it to the end of term, for an extra ~$540 due upon return in three months.
If your dealer is willing to "cut a cheque for $1800", then suffice to say that $1800 is the minimum discount you can expect on a new Tribute. 7% sounds about right, though on a car like the Tribute with declining sales, I might expect to do better. Even the 2006 models are offering 0% finance. Just think what they'll do to get you into a new Tribute in January.
You are essentially paying $1800 to get out of a lease with three months left, rather than paying $2340 to get three more months of usage out of it. For $540, why not just get three more months out of the car?
Whether it's a bad deal or not, depends on what that Tribute is selling for. Sounds like your new lease payments for a base Tribute at MSRP over 48 months will be $400. They'd be $360 if that $1800 were a discount.
If you expect to exceed your kilometre allowance, negotiate a larger allowance, or finance the car. You'd be leasing at 2.5% over 48 months, but you could finance for 0% over 60 months.
Look, you'll be eating $540 in kilometer charges to keep it, but that's what I'd do. Buy new in the winter when demand is low, and expect to get at least $2000 off the MSRP (if you get $2300 off, you've just coverd the kilometre overage fee), then if you have faith in the Tribute, finance it over 60 months at 0% for ~$460 per month. The major downside of this is that you'll be seriously upside-down for the first three years (you'll owe much more than it's worth).
Or, grab a Tucson or similar, more recent vehicle for similar money.
