I think there are a LOT of variables to consider. I kept a spreadsheet on my '94 Golf, and it got it's best mileage just before I sold it at 98+k. Allowing for seasonal variations, it consistently improved over the six years I owned it. I did, however, break it in very gently. Perhaps if I had been a little harder on it, it would have gotten and maintained that higher economy earlier. Oh, and I did notice a significant improvement when I went to synthetic. If I recall correctly, about 4-5%. The majority of my driving was city and fairly short drives at that.