Irving, Texas – Energy demand will rise through 2040 and oil will remain the most prominent fuel, according to a new forecast by ExxonMobil. Global economic output will double and prosperity will expand across a word where the population will grow to nearly nine billion people, the company stated in its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.
The Outlook projects that global energy demand will be about 30 per cent higher in 2040 than it was in 2010, led by growth in developing regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies.
While oil will remain the most widely-used fuel, overall energy demand will be reshaped by a continued shift toward less carbon-intensive energy sources, such as natural gas, as well as steep improvements in transportation energy efficiency, spurred by the expanded use of hybrid vehicles.
Rising demand for electricity is identified as the single largest influence on energy trends. ExxonMobil projects that global electricity demand will rise by 80 per cent through 2040 as economies and living standard improve, and consumers switch to electricity from coal, oil or biomass. By 2040, four out of every ten units of energy produced worldwide will be going toward the production of electricity.
Transportation will be the second-fastest-growing demand sector behind electricity generation. The Outlook forecasts that advanced hybrid vehicles will account for half of all cars in 2040, compared to about one per cent today. This, plus improved fuel economy in conventional vehicles, will cause demand for energy for personal vehicles to remain essentially flat through 2040, even though the number of personal vehicles in the world doubles. However, energy demands for commercial vehicles such as trucks, airplanes, ships and trains will rise by more than 70 per cent. Demand for oil and liquid fuels will rise by nearly 30 per cent, most of the increase linked to transportation.