June 26, 2007

CAPP releases 2007 Canadian crude oil forecast and market outlook


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Calgary, Alberta – The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) has released its annual crude oil production, supply, markets and pipelines outlook. The highlights of the outlook include:

  • Oil supply is slightly below last year’s forecast in the early years, but slightly higher in the last few years of the forecast period.
  • The growth in oil sands more than offsets a gradual decline in conventional crude oil production.
  • A first-time refinery survey indicates that the refinery demand outlook for western Canadian crude oil is aligned with the supply forecast.
  • Pipeline projects currently in various stages of development will provide sufficient capacity to the 2010-2012 period, if they receive regulatory approval and proceed according to plan.

  • There are numerous pipeline proposals to various markets in North America, post-2012, but given the timelines to obtain regulatory approvals and to construct them, the market must now focus on the next round of new capacity.

For the first time, CAPP surveyed downstream refiners, asking for their long-term plans to process western Canadian crude oil. The results indicate that demand by Canadian refineries is expected to rise from 765,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2006 to almost 1.1 million b/d in 2015, a 44 per cent increase. Over the same period, U.S. refinery demand for western Canadian crude is projected to increase from about 1.6 million b/d to almost 3.1 million b/d. The growth in crude oil supplies will need more pipeline capacity to ensure access to both new and existing markets.

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