Calgary, Alberta – Canadian crude oil production will rise to about 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025, up from 2.8 million bpd in 2010, according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The increase will be driven by oil sands growth and new production from existing conventional oil reserves.

“CAPP’s 2011 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Pipeline Outlook reaffirms the trend of rising Canadian oil production over the next 15 years,” said Greg Stringham, vice-president of markets and oil sands. “Expanding access to existing markets in the U.S. and diversifying into Asian markets are important to enable this production growth and to ensure Canadian producers receive competitive prices for their products.”

While the 2009 economic downturn saw many oil sands projects deferred, an improved investment climate, more robust commodity prices and market demand for Canadian crude resulted in several projects returning to active development in 2010, a trend that continues in 2011.

Meanwhile, application of new technology has enabled resurgence in the production of conventional oil from low-permeability “tight” reservoirs. “New technology enables industry to produce oil from formerly uneconomic conventional reserves, creating growth in conventional production early in the forecast period,” Stringham said. “This is a significant departure from the declining trend in conventional oil production we’ve seen over the last decade.”

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